Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
